COVID-19 may have arrived in US by December 2019

COVID-19 may have arrived in US by December 2019: The study researchers, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), analyzed more than 7,000 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross in nine states between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020. Of those, 106 samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020:

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, with subsequent worldwide spread. The first U.S. cases were identified in January 2020.

Methods

To determine if SARS-CoV-2 reactive antibodies were present in sera prior to the first identified case in the U.S. on January 19, 2020, residual archived samples from 7,389 routine blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from December 13, 2019 to January 17, 2020, from donors resident in nine states (California, Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin) were tested at CDC for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Specimens reactive by pan-immunoglobulin (pan Ig) enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the full spike protein were tested by IgG and IgM ELISAs, microneutralization test, Ortho total Ig S1 ELISA, and receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity assay.

Results

Of the 7,389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity >50%, suggesting the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies. Donations with reactivity occurred in all nine states.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to January 19, 2020.

The costs of UK lockdowns

Working Paper attempts to set out the costs of UK lockdowns: our preliminary estimates of the costs of lockdown have been astonishing. These include:  

− Public sector net debt is expected to increase by £473 billion in 2020-21; 

− GDP has fallen by 11.3% in 2020; 

− Unemployment is expected to increase by between 450,000 and 2.45 million above pre-pandemic levels;

 − The estimates of the cost per year of life saved (QALY) rangefrom nearly three times more than what the NHS is usually prepared to pay to over 80 times more; 

− 20,000 loss of lives could be lost from delayed treatment for cancer and other diseases; 

− 16,900 additional domestic violence cases were recorded between March and June 2020;

− Significant increases in depression (64% recording common depressive symptoms), anxiety (69% report increases) and loneliness (reports of loneliness parents of under-fives up by 1.4 million);

− Significant increases in substance abuse including high-risk drinking among adults up by 3.7 million, 20% increase in opiate addictions, 39% increase in number of relapses among addicts; 

− A 25% to 30% reduction in learning among primary and secondary pupils, respectively.

Operation Warp Speed's Moncef Slaoui guided COVID-19 vaccine creation

Operation Warp Speed's Moncef Slaoui guided COVID-19 vaccine creation: Deliver a safe, effective COVID-19 vaccine in less than a year? Impossible. Meet Moncef Slaoui.

As science adviser of Operation Warp Speed, the veteran pharmaceutical executive helped usher a coronavirus vaccine to the US market in record time. (...)

Slaoui's name came up repeatedly in the spring, when Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was looking for someone from the private sector to help lead Operation Warp Speed – an unprecedented and audacious effort to deliver a COVID-19 vaccine by year's end. 

The scientific community was among the skeptical. The fastest vaccine development on record was for the mumps, and it took four years. There was no way to make a safe, effective vaccine in seven months, many said. Something would have to be compromised.

Slaoui thought he could pull it off. 

In many ways, he'd been preparing for the challenge his entire life.

A political activist in his youth, he spent nearly 30 years at pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline, 27 of them working on a vaccine for malaria. He brought 14 vaccines to market and rose to head research and development for the entire company.

"Vaccines have always been my first love. That's what I like the most,"

Mask usage reduces COVID-19 deaths

Mask usage reduces COVID-19 deaths: A US county-level analysis: The science behind mask usage and its ability to reduce airborne particles seems clear. Despite this, many individuals are sceptical that wearing masks can reduce the spread of COVID-19 and many refuse to wear one even when required. This column examines the effect of mask usage using county-level data from the US, employing an instrumental variable approach. The findings show that increasing the amount of individuals who frequently or always wear a mask when within six feet of people by 1% could reduce COVID-19 deaths by 10.5%, which translates into approximately six deaths in the average county.

How COVID vaccines are being divvied up around the world

How COVID vaccines are being divvied up around the world

 

China's mishandling of the early stages of Covid-19 pandemic revealed by leaked documents

China's mishandling of the early stages of Covid-19 pandemic revealed by leaked documents:

CNN's key findings

• Chinese officials gave the world more optimistic data than they had access to internally

• China's system took on average 23 days to diagnose confirmed patients, and testing failures meant most received negative results until January 10
• A history of underfunding, understaffing, poor morale and bureaucratic models of governance hampered China's early warning system, internal audits found
• A large and previously undisclosed outbreak of influenza happened in early December in Hubei province.

Explaining Operation Warp Speed

Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed: Operation Warp Speed's goal is to produce and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccines with the initial doses available by January 2021, as part of a broader strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics (collectively known as countermeasures).