Working Paper attempts to set out the costs of UK lockdowns: our preliminary estimates of the costs of lockdown have been astonishing. These include:
− Public sector net debt is expected to increase by £473 billion in 2020-21;
− GDP has fallen by 11.3% in 2020;
− Unemployment is expected to increase by between 450,000 and 2.45 million above pre-pandemic levels;
− The estimates of the cost per year of life saved (QALY) rangefrom nearly three times more than what the NHS is usually prepared to pay to over 80 times more;
− 20,000 loss of lives could be lost from delayed treatment for cancer and other diseases;
− 16,900 additional domestic violence cases were recorded between March and June 2020;
− Significant increases in depression (64% recording common depressive symptoms), anxiety (69% report increases) and loneliness (reports of loneliness parents of under-fives up by 1.4 million);
− Significant increases in substance abuse including high-risk drinking among adults up by 3.7 million, 20% increase in opiate addictions, 39% increase in number of relapses among addicts;
− A 25% to 30% reduction in learning among primary and secondary pupils, respectively.
