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01 julho 2020

The Road to COVID-19 Enlightenment: Historically, we have bestowed our trust on the basis of science, experience, or divine inspiration. But what if the knowledge we seek does not yet exist, and even science knows that it does not know what is being asked of it?

That is the situation we currently find ourselves in with COVID-19 and the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes it. Our knowledge of the new coronavirus is rapidly increasing, but utterly inadequate. We have not yet learned much about how to treat the infected, much less figured out how to make an effective vaccine. We do not even know how to control the pandemic reliably through social-distancing measures.
Explainer: how is the vaccine pipeline for Covid-19 looking? As of 29 June, 16 vaccine candidates are in clinical trials. An impressive 129 candidate are in preclinical evaluation.

30 junho 2020

The Shape of Epidemics: Waves have taken pride of place in the COVID-19 crisis, serving not just to predict but also to persuade. As new infections soar in the United States, their special blend of mathematical and moral messaging will help to shape the future of the pandemic.

COVID cases are rising. COVID deaths are declining. Why? This all means a spike in coronavirus cases in any particular location doesn’t necessarily lead to more people dying. In fact, if you look at many of the graphs of case counts and deaths on the New York Times’ coronavirus map, the lines are doing different things. In Arizona, as cases rise, deaths are remaining relatively flat, with the highest number of deaths in a day happening back in May. Alabama saw a recent spike in deaths to accompany a jump in cases, but not as big as the spike in death, also back in May, when case counts were relatively low. In Florida, which hit its highest number of cases yesterday (2,783), the death rate appears to be falling slightly.

This could be in part because there is a delay between being diagnosed with the virus, and dying from it; we just have to wait and see on that front. But it’s also because the rate at which people are dying really depends on who in the population is adding to the case count. In at least a couple states, they tend to be younger.
As COVID-19 cases rise, fewer Americans are following coronavirus news: A Pew Research Center study published Monday paints a scary picture about the American public’s coronavirus news consumption habits: as infection hotspots rise around the country, fewer are following news about the virus closely.
Can You Get Coronavirus Again After You've Already Had It? “The answer — today — is that people appear to be contagious one to two days prior to getting sick, and for one to two weeks after getting sick,” said Dr. Stephen Gluckman, an infectious diseases physician at Penn Medicine and the medical director of Penn Global Medicine. (This timeframe generally goes for any contagious illness, not just COVID-19.)

“As we improve, the amount of virus we’re shedding into the environment drops off,” Gluckman said.
“Infodémie” COVID-19: une analyse en images de la désinformation en Europe