27 outubro 2020
Máscaras para multar
It is bad science to say covid-19 infections will create herd immunity
It is bad science to say covid-19 infections will create herd immunity: According to the signatories of an open letter called the Great Barrington Declaration, lockdown measures are doing more harm than good and we should open up society and let the virus rip. (...)
The mainstream media lapped up the disagreement narrative, but completely missed the fundamental problem with the declaration: its extremely dubious claims about herd immunity. This is central to the strategy, but the document badly fluffs the science.
Herd immunity is conceptually simple. If enough people become immune to an infectious agent, the entire herd is protected because infectious people rarely encounter a non-immune person, and so transmission fizzles out.
The level of individual immunity required to attain herd immunity depends on how infectious the virus is, as measured by R, the average number of people that each infectious person infects. The classic example is measles, which has an R number of around 15 and a herd immunity threshold of 95 per cent. The numbers for the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are about 3.5 and 60 to 70 per cent.
Herd immunity has only ever been attained by vaccination. But the declaration advocates naturally acquired immunity. In other words, letting between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population catch the virus.
26 outubro 2020
Contact-tracing app has only sent one alert about an outbreak in a venue
Let’s flatten the infodemic curve
Let’s flatten the infodemic curve: We are all being exposed to a huge amount of COVID-19 information on a daily basis, and not all of it is reliable. Here are some tips for telling the difference and stopping the spread of misinformation.
Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard
Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard : Too many of the COVID-19 models have led policymakers astray. Here’s how tomorrow’s models will get it right


Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends
Coronavirus changes we might want to keep
Coronavirus changes we might want to keep: The coronavirus pandemic has caused hardship and sorrow around the world, but it has also forced innovations that might stick around after the pandemic is under control.
Why it matters: Some of those changes have proven to be popular and may improve people's lives if they become permanent.
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The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective : We provide an estimate of the value of a cure using the joint behavior of stock prices ...
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The dangers of Covid-19 far outweigh the risks of a vaccine : So can I tell you that there won't be a long-term unknown side effect to t...
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The Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Efficacy Data : We’re going to have to wait and collect more data to be able to say anything about these, fo...