Choque entre el norte y el sur por las patentes covid-19: India y Sudáfrica lideran una petición ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio para que se suspenda temporalmente la propiedad intelectual sobre tecnologías, medicamentos y vacunas contra el nuevo coronavirus mientras dure la pandemia; 99 países les apoyan, el mundo rico se resiste
The global economic cost of COVID-19 vaccine nationalism: Findings in full
Until there is a widely available vaccine for COVID-19, physical distancing measures will continue to affect key sectors of the global economy negatively, especially those that rely on close physical proximity between people. The global cost associated with COVID-19 and its economic impact could be $3.4 trillion a year. For the EU it will be about 5.6 per cent of annual GDP, about $983 billion. The UK would incur a loss of about 4.3 per cent—an annual cost of $145 billion. The US loses about 2.2 per cent of annual GDP, about $480 billion.
Vaccine nationalism could lead to the unequal allocation of COVID-19 vaccines and cost the global economy up to $1.2 trillion a year in GDP terms. Even if some countries manage to immunise their populations against the virus, as long as the virus is not under control in all regions of the world, there will continue to be a global economic cost associated with COVID-19.
Even if nationalistic behaviour is inevitable, there are economic incentives to providing access to vaccines across the globe. Based on estimates by Oxfam International in 2020, it would cost $25 billion to supply lower-income countries with vaccines. The US, the UK, the EU and other high-income countries combined could lose about $119 billion a year if the poorest countries are denied a supply. If these high-income countries paid for the supply of vaccines, there could be a benefit-to-cost ratio of 4.8 to 1. For every $1 spent, high-income countries would get back about $4.80.
If the poorest countries cannot access vaccines, the world could still lose about £153 billion a year in GDP. All high-income countries, as well as countries such as India, China and Russia, would still incur together an estimated GDP loss of about $119 billion a year, or approximately $10 billion a month. The EU would lose about $40 billion a year, the US $16 billion and the UK between $2 billion and $10 billion.
